WHAT IF?  What If The Best Is Yet To Come?

 

  • Do you still fear of a repeat of the Financial Crisis?  What if instead of another great recession and stock market collapse, we are only in the early stages of a secular bull market?  Would you miss out on a continuing market rally?                                                                                                                                       
  • The last great bull market lasted from 1982 to 2000.  What if the current bull that began in 2009 still has more ahead of it than behind?
  • In 1982 the Baby Boom generation was moving from their 20's to their 30's.  A great deal of what drove the bull market of the next 18 years was the largest generation in American history moving into their peak earning years.  Year after year they poured money into consumption and investments mostly through retirement accounts.  The Millenial generation is now beginning the move from their 20's into their 30's.  This generation is a little larger than the Baby Boom generation.  The Millenials are now the largest generation in American history.
  • Low inflation and a slow but steadily growing economy.  Good reasons for a rising stock market.  When was the last time you looked at baby carriages?  Baby strollers may be an indicator of what's coming next.  Millenials are having babies.  When they were babies, in the 1980's a $300 stroller was an extravagance.  Today $1,000 strollers are relatively common and $1,500 strollers are not unheard of.  What if the near future is one of rising Millenial consumption as they become established in their careers, buy houses, cars, mini-vans, strollers and whatever they invent.  What if your fear of another Financial Crisis is keeping you from seeing the coming of the Millenials?
  • During the Savings and Loan Crisis, sometime around 1990, the late Sir John Templeton appeared on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.  Templeton was 88 at the time.  We were entering a mild recession and savings and loans across the country were collapsing.  Templeton was unreservedly bullish.  Rukeyser asked if the S&L crisis and other things worried him.  Templeton said yes, they did.  But he pointed out that there are always things to worry about.  But that life was better then, in 1990, than it was 30 years before, in roughly 1960, and he was confident that life would be better 30 years in the future, and investments would rise accordingly.  1990 was 25 years ago.  We're almost there and it looks like Sir John's confidence was well placed.  Today I make the same statement.  30 years from now investments and our quality of life will be higher than they are today.  We have a lot to worry about, but humanity continues to advance and those advances should reward our investments.